After narrowly missing out to Manchester City in May 2019, Jurgen Klopp ventured that his Liverpool team would have to be “very close to perfection” to win the Premier League title the following season.
They rose to his challenge, setting off at an extraordinary pace, winning 26 of their first 27 matches of the campaign, and secured the title with seven games to spare. With the job done, they eased off slightly but they still finished with 99 points, a standard surpassed only by Manchester City’s “centurions” two years earlier. Over a three-year period, the title was won with 100, 98 and 99 points, a level that was closer to perfection than anything we had seen in English football’s top-flight before.
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This season is proving a different matter. Manchester City dropped as many points in the first 11 games as they did in the whole of their record-breaking 2017-18 campaign. By match-day 16, Liverpool had dropped as many points as they did last season — and they were still top. As the halfway stage approaches, Manchester United lead the table with 37 points from 18 games. At the same point in 2017-18, they had 41 points… and were 11 points adrift of Manchester City.
The pace at the top of the table is by far the slowest in the past decade. After 18 games in 2010-11, Manchester United were top with 37 points. In each of the past nine seasons, at least two teams have had more points than that. At this stage last season, 37 points would have got you in fourth place, 15 points behind Liverpool.
It feels like a very different type of season — a late start, a severely congested fixture schedule, no crowds and an alarming number of players testing positive for COVID-19 — and a very different type of title race. After the processions of recent years, this has been a campaign full of stumbles.
Whereas it was almost impossible to detect a weakness in the past four title-winning teams (Liverpool, Manchester City twice and Chelsea), every Premier League team this season has shown at least one obvious shortcoming. Rather than chasing perfection, the challenge for the teams at the top is to identify their flaws and try to correct them before too much damage is done.
Every time you think a team has found consistency, they seem to falter. Conversely, every time you think a team has fallen away, the ongoing struggles at the top have given them more margin for error. That ensured that Manchester City and Manchester United, during their early-season travails, were never left too far behind. Liverpool have not won in four Premier League matches (and have only won four of their past 11) but are still only three points off the top. Tottenham Hotspur have only won three of the past nine games but are only one further point adrift.
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It is not just the staggered fixture schedule that has seen the lead at the top change hands with such regularity. Manchester City are yet to claim top spot, but, two points behind Manchester United with a game in hand, are certainly well placed. Their status as the bookmakers’ odds-on favourites reflects a belief that Pep Guardiola has resolved the defensive problems that blighted them in the early weeks of the campaign, but there are still other issues to address.
For now, it appears that by tightening up the defence, stabilising the team and then working towards restoring fluency in attack, Guardiola has done what Klopp, Jose Mourinho, Frank Lampard and others need to do. In an era when there is so much talk about coaching philosophy, perhaps the key to success this season will be more about fixing problems as they arise. And with less time on the training pitch than usual, due to the congested schedule, that becomes a different type of test.
Oliver Kay
Manchester United
Played 18 Points 37 Goal difference +10
Chances of winning the title: 7/1
Chances of finishing in top four: 1/4
Carl Anka on their main flaw: United’s unconventional stylings in attack and defence have allowed them to ride the wave in the most unconventional of Premier League seasons. They’ve eked out a window of opportunity for something greater, and what’s interesting is Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has a number of ways to take the team to the next level.
United tend to rely on the skills of Marcus Rashford and Luke Shaw to progress the ball and build moves, directing the majority of play down the left-hand side of the pitch. This is working for now – United play with an enjoyable haphazard precision and will win more games than they will lose in their current state – but if #21in21 is to truly be a thing, then they need to vary the angles in which they attack.
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United could move Rashford to the right (as we suggested here). Or they could closely drill Mason Greenwood as to where he should track back when out of possession. Failing that, one can hope Amad Diallo ends up being the winger the memes and fancam compilations hint at.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka takes care of much of the defensive work on the right-hand side of the pitch, so whoever plays on the right should be able to pick the ball up in closer areas to the opposition’s penalty area, and if it is Rashford who is given the nod out wide, then Bruno Fernandes will drift over plenty to make these moves work, too.
If Edinson Cavani retains his place as starting striker (something else we heartily recommend, if only because United defend corners better when the Uruguayan is stationed on the front post), then United could marry his veteran nous and movement with the speed and ball carrying of Martial and Rashford on either flank. In a Premier League season that’s more about knockout punches rather than fancy footwork, United stand a chance at having their cake and eating it too.
Key stat: Manchester United have gained the most points from losing positions this season.
| Rank | Team | Points gained from a losing position |
|---|---|---|
1 | 18 | |
2 | 10 | |
3 | 8 | |
4 | 7 | |
5 | 6 | |
6 | 6 | |
7 | 5 | |
8 | 4 | |
9 | 2 | |
10 | 1 | |
11 | 1 |
Manchester City
Played 17 Points 35 Goal difference +16
Chances of winning the title: 4/7
Chances of finishing in top four: 1/50
Sam Lee on their main flaw: Manchester City seem to have fixed their biggest issues already, which is why they are in such a strong position. Of course, whether they win the title or not will depend on what they do in the coming months, but as it stands they have less to worry about — in terms of their game plan — than their rivals.
That’s not always been the case: even until the middle of December, they had their issues. Starting the season, they still had problems with counter-attacks, but then even as they tightened up and started to find some defensive solidity, they were pretty stodgy, didn’t create too many chances and they rarely looked as fluid and convincing as they have done in recent years. In the last month, things have come together, with the defence perhaps as solid as it ever has been under Pep Guardiola, and a renewed focus on attacking like the old days ever since the 0-0 draw at Old Trafford. They are getting men forward and creating plenty. The only issue now is now profligate they can still be, but by managing to sort out the defence and create plenty of chances at the same time, Guardiola and his players deserve huge credit for putting City in a promising position.
Key stat: Only Burnley, Sheffield United and Fulham have a lower “big chance” conversion rate, as defined by Opta, than Manchester City (28.6 per cent) this season.
Leicester City
Played 18 Points 35 Goal difference +12
Chances of winning the title: 33/1
Chances of finishing in top four: 2/1
Rob Tanner on their main flaw: Once again, as Leicester City reach the halfway stage of the season, Brendan Rodgers’ men are in the hunt for a Champions League spot and even, dare anyone say it, a title challenge.
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However, the memory of how their campaign started to fizzle out in the second half of the last campaign remains and serves as a reminder of what they need to do to sustain a challenge.
Leicester are not as reliant on Jamie Vardy to provide the goals now Harvey Barnes has stepped up this season. The academy graduate has answered the call from Rodgers to improve his finishing and has found the net 10 times in all competitions this season, including four in his last five games.
Leicester are also the top scorers in the final 15 minutes of games. Twelve of their 33 goals have come in the closing stages of games, clear evidence of their fitness and running power.
A big area of improvement, however, is at set pieces. Their tendency to concede from corners and set pieces has been documented here, but they have also failed to score from a set piece this season. They may not be the biggest side, but more competitiveness on set plays will aid their cause.
Key stat: Leicester are the best side at protecting their leads in the Premier League this season.
| Rank | Team | Points dropped winning position |
|---|---|---|
1 | 0 | |
2 | 0 | |
3 | 3 | |
4 | 3 | |
5 | 5 | |
6 | 7 | |
7 | 7 | |
8 | 8 | |
9 | 8 | |
10 | 10 | |
11 | 10 |
Liverpool
Played 18 Points 34 Goal difference +16
Chances of winning the title: 7/2
Chances of finishing in top four: 1/7
James Pearce on their main flaw: Liverpool’s standards have slipped. The goals have dried up. Jurgen Klopp’s side have gone 348 minutes of top-flight football without finding the net.
Has the intensity of two record-breaking campaigns that brought Champions League, Club World Cup and Premier League glory taken its toll? Injuries have certainly contributed to Liverpool’s downturn. The absence of first-choice centre-backs Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez has hit them hard. With Joel Matip also sidelined, Klopp has been left without a recognised fit senior centre-back.
Midfield duo Fabinho and captain Jordan Henderson have filled in admirably. But playing them in the backline weakens Liverpool further forward.
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The balance of the team looks wrong. Too often their build-up play is slow and predictable. They aren’t cutting through teams. They aren’t playing with the kind of fluency, control and discipline that enabled them to relentlessly grind out results en route to ending the club’s 30-year wait for the title.
The attacking trio of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino have lost their sparkle in recent weeks. Their finishing has been wayward but the bigger issue for Klopp is the lack of chances being created. They aren’t really stretching defences or getting in behind them.
Trent Alexander-Arnold is enduring the first proper dip of his career and that has affected the service to the frontline. The January signing supporters craved to address the centre-back shortage hasn’t been forthcoming due to both availability and price. Failing to bolster that department makes retaining the title significantly more difficult but hope still remains.
Thiago Alcantara, who missed most of the first half of the season, is now fully fit and his influence on the team looks certain to grow. Liverpool will also welcome back Diogo Jota, who was in fine form prior to the knee injury he suffered in early December.
There’s still enough talent there for Liverpool to retain their top-flight crown. But Klopp must get them firing again soon or title talk will be silenced and they will find themselves in a real scrap for a top-four finish.
Key stat: Liverpool are creating 10.9 chances per game this season compared with 15.3 last season.
Tottenham Hotspur
Played 18 Points 33 Goal difference +16
Chances of winning the title: 20/1
Chances of finishing in top four: 11/10
Jack Pitt-Brooke on their main flaw: Harry Kane and Son Heung-min are both playing brilliantly but the problem for Spurs is that they are so dependent on those two going forward. Kane and Son have 12 league goals each so far this season, their total of 24 is nearly three-quarters of Spurs’ 33 goals. Their next highest goalscorer in the league is Tanguy Ndombele, whose brilliant strike at Bramall Lane on Saturday was his third of the season.
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For as long as Kane and Son keep taking chances, this might not appear too much of a problem, but the issue is that it is unlikely to be sustainable through the season. Players get injuries. Kane has had his ankle problems in the past and suffered a bad hamstring tear a year ago. He looks in great shape right now but this season is draining for everyone. Son’s injury record is maybe better but he is a streaky player, who goes through runs of scoring and not scoring. Imagine if Kane gets an injury, or Son goes on another long barren streak.
There were hopes at the start of the season that Gareth Bale would be the perfect foil to those two, making a fearsome front three, but he has only been fit enough for one league start since returning, and has one league goal to his name. Lucas Moura, Giovani Lo Celso, Dele Alli and Steven Bergwijn have had issues, too, and are struggling to find the net.
Modern teams like Liverpool or Manchester City tend to share the goals out evenly. Spurs’ two-man dependence is rare. You have to go back to the Sunderland team of 1999-2000, Niall Quinn and Kevin Phillips, to find a side as dependent on two strikers for goals as Spurs are now. Kane and Son still need more help.
Key stat: Tottenham’s expected goals (xG) — the quality of chances they’ve created this season — is only the ninth-best in the league, behind even Brighton & Hove Albion.
Everton
Played 17 Points 32 Goal difference +7
Chances of winning the title: 66/1
Chances of finishing in top four: 11/2
Patrick Boyland on their main flaw: So far, so good for Everton as they approach the halfway stage of the season. They have coped admirably in the face of a steady stream of injuries and suspensions, most recently grinding out wins in the absence of their main creative influences, James Rodriguez and Lucas Digne.
The influential pair are now back to add to Ancelotti’s options, but in other areas of the Everton squad, there remains a distinct lack of quality depth.
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Top-scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s goals account for just under 40 per cent of the team’s overall league total, while no substitute has yet come on to score in the competition this season. These are stark statistics that point to a lack of top-quality back-up options and an inability to change the course of games.
Should anything happen to Calvert-Lewin, Ancelotti would either be forced to move Richarlison infield, creating an issue on the left wing, or put his faith in Cenk Tosun, who was deemed expendable in previous windows and has scored five Premier League goals since the start of the 2018-19 season.
It is not Everton’s only weakness. They could do with more guile on the ball in midfield, an injection of pace on the wings and extra options at full-back, but it is the flaw that looks likely to bite the hardest if not rectified during the January window.
Key stat: Of teams in the top six, Everton have the least prolific second top scorer — Michael Keane and James Rodriguez with three each.
Chelsea
Played 18 Points 29 Goal difference +12
Chances of winning the title: 50/1
Chances of finishing in top four: 5/4
Simon Johnson on their main flaw: Halfway through the Premier League season, does anyone know what Chelsea’s best team is? Injuries and the condensed fixture list have naturally been a factor at times, but one gets the impression coach Frank Lampard is looking for the answer even when he has a fully fit squad.
It was always going to be a lot harder to pick a first XI this season than last following the arrival of six internationals. The back five, including keeper Edouard Mendy, has been fairly consistent, although Antonio Rudiger now appears to be putting Kurt Zouma’s place next to Thiago Silva under threat.
But it is the front six where most of the rotation has come and so perhaps it is not a surprise that their displays have become increasingly disjointed. Only Mason Mount, it seems, is getting to play in the same position every match.
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N’Golo Kante and Jorginho are two very different players to operate in front of the back four and yet have almost taken it in turns to play there. The lack of goals from midfield isn’t helped when Mateo Kovacic, who has scored once in the Premier League in two and a half years, is picked instead of expensive recruit Kai Havertz.
And the front three rarely stays the same. The situation has been made complicated by Timo Werner struggling on the left and up front. This has had a knock-on effect on strikers Tammy Abraham and Olivier Giroud, plus wide players Hakim Ziyech, Christian Pulisic and Callum Hudson-Odoi.
It comes with risks of upsetting people, but if Chelsea are to stage any kind of charge in the second half of the campaign, Lampard needs to settle on a first-choice side.
Key stat: Chelsea might not be as bad as you think they are. Expected goal difference gives us a good understanding of the quality of chances overall that any given team is creating and conceding compared to others in the league, and in most cases, the stat correlates highly with the league table come the end of the season.
Southampton
Played 18 Points 29 Goal difference +5
Chances of winning the title: 250/1
Chances of finishing in top four: 25/1
Dan Sheldon on their main flaw: Ralph Hasenhuttl will often say he doesn’t pay any attention to the Premier League table until Southampton have played everyone at least once. Going top of the table in November will be something supporters won’t forget, but the prospect of sustaining a title challenge hasn’t been considered — even in the strangest of seasons.
They are still in the hunt for Champions League qualification but that, too, looks increasingly unlikely. Hasenhuttl doesn’t have a squad capable of pushing for those places.
The Europa League is definitely an option, though. For Southampton to reach the halfway stage ahead of Wolverhampton Wanderers and Arsenal is testament to how well their campaign is going.
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One fatal flaw in recent weeks has been their inability to score. The Athletic explained this in detail and the goal-shy run doesn’t look like it will slow down anytime soon. They’ve managed just two goals in six games.
In that time, they’ve kept three clean sheets, so defending isn’t an issue. They need to show they can score and win without Danny Ings.
Key stat: Only four teams have created less than Southampton’s 25 big chances this season. They are Wolves, Burnley, Newcastle United and West Bromwich Albion.
West Ham United
Played 18 Points 29 Goal difference +4
Chances of winning the title: 500/1
Chances of finishing in top four: 33/1
Roshane Thomas on their main flaw: “The disappointing thing today was that the creative players didn’t play well enough to give us an edge and get us a second or third goal,” said David Moyes after West Ham beat Burnley on Saturday, which extended their unbeaten run to five games in all competitions.
That win was West Ham’s third 1-0 victory on the bounce and represented all that has been good and bad about Moyes’ team of late — they’re hard to beat, hard to score against, but don’t score freely.
In fact, Moyes was so unimpressed by one of his strikers that when Ajax popped up offering to sign Sebastien Haller for half of the club-record fee West Ham paid for him, the manager was happy for him to go.
Midfielder Tomas Soucek is West Ham’s top Premier League scorer this season with five. Fellow Moyes signing Jarrod Bowen is on four along with Michail Antonio, who is comfortably the club’s most threatening attacker — when fit.
David Ornstein revealed yesterday that Moyes is looking to reinvest that Haller fee in Sevilla’s Youssef En-Nesyri — if he’s as good as the manager’s attacking recruits so far, they could have a decent shot at a surprise European place.
Key stat: West Ham have scored just 25 goals this season, the lowest in the top half.
Arsenal
Played 19 Points 27 Goal difference +4
Chances of winning the title: 250/1
Chances of finishing in top four: 16/1
Art de Roché on their main flaw: Returning to the Champions League has been Arsenal’s priority since Arsene Wenger’s 2018 departure.
Unai Emery came within 90 minutes of achieving this, but since, the club have slid further from Europe’s top table. Many issues need to be solved to sustain a proper top-four challenge but the most vital is the personnel within the bloated squad.
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Heading into the 2020-21 season, failing to offload unwanted players meant Mesut Ozil, Sokratis and William Saliba were left unregistered. Certain areas of the squad were overcrowded.
Central defence was one such area but there was also a disproportionate lack of options in more creative midfield positions. Arsenal suffered, struggling to cause problems consistently for Premier League opponents.
To reverse the trend, there must be a much better balance in the current squad. As Ozil prepares to leave for Fenerbache, the one player suited to his No 10 role is Emile Smith Rowe, but relying on just one player cannot be the answer. Especially when said player is 20 years old.
That issue is prevalent across the squad. Kieran Tierney is the club’s only natural left-back. There have been glimpses of what is possible with a more balanced squad in recent weeks. Movement off the ball and quick decisions being made on it have resulted in more encouraging displays.
To ensure a serious challenge for European football is mounted, however, Arteta must build on the balance found in the festive period. Players cannot have roles too similar to each other while also being allowed to play with freedom, especially in midfield. Thomas Partey and Gabriel Martinelli returning will help with that — and Partey played a key role in the win against Newcastle last night — but for the squad to find themselves, Arteta must figure out who complements each other best, then let them go.
Key stat: Arsenal need to do more late on in games. No team in the top 11 has scored fewer goals after the 76th minute in games this season.
| Rank | Team | Late goals (76mins+) |
|---|---|---|
1 | 12 | |
2 | 11 | |
3 | 10 | |
4 | 9 | |
5 | 9 | |
6 | 7 | |
7 | 5 | |
8 | 4 | |
9 | 4 | |
10 | 3 | |
11 | 2 |
(All data correct as of Monday 18 January.)
Aston Villa
Played 15 Points 26 Goal difference +13
Chances of winning the title: 100/1
Chances of finishing in top four: 12/1
Gregg Evans on their main flaw: That we’re even including Aston Villa in such a conversation is testament to the way Dean Smith has transformed his side.
Unlike the teams above who are all now expected to be within a top-six shout, there is no pressure on Smith’s underdogs. With the youngest average starting XI in the division, the fresh legs have so far coped with the challenge. Star man Jack Grealish has stepped up another level, and despite playing fewer games than all of their rivals, Villa still have the most clean sheets (eight).
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There’s a lovely balance between defence and attack. Villa know when to sit deep and grind it out but also when to hit opponents with their devastating counter-attacks. The main concern would be whether this side eventually burns out. Villa have used the fewest amount of players in the division (19). There’s no proven goalscorer to replace Ollie Watkins up front if he’s injured or suspended — can the team cope with a setback to one or two of their star players?
Keeping players fit and fresh is hard enough with the COVID-19 crisis and the number of fixtures squeezed into the season. For Villa, that problem is multiplied by their lack of experience in reserve.
If they fall short there will be no complaints. A top-half finish, never mind the top six, would be seen as huge progress this year.
Key stat: No team has used fewer than Aston Villa’s 28 substitutions this season. Even if they use all three in each of their three games in hand, they would still be 18th.
(Photos: Getty Images; design; Sam Richardson)